Saturday, December 31, 2005

Mental Exercise

There is a whole lot of bashing of Left and Right, a candle bearer for each side may say of the other "they foster hate, encourage others to hate us and side against us". The simple truth is that it doesn't matter. It is just people shouting at each other, free debate in a free society. Neither side is killing the other - no foul, no problem. The key point is that it is free in every sense of the word.

There is whole lot of angst generated, maybe even a real sense belief that your ideals are superior to the other side. So as mental exercise I want you to take that self belief way further.
  1. I want you to figure a solution to rid the world of blathering Moonbats or wingnut Fascists (whatever is your thing), cause them to run away back to where they came from. I want you to do this using all means - putting your morals aside - assuming the end will justify the means.
  2. I want you to figure a cost in dollar terms to your solution.

You have now probably arrived at a large figure*.

All acts of conflict cost lots and lots. They require logistics, strategists and able people to implement. None of this comes cheap.

The terrorism we have witnessed costs a fortune, many times over. It is a plan (like that of your own) carried out by truly ruthless people. But however ruthless they are, however much hate they possess the cost does not go away. Without a fortune to spend they are people who do not like us, with the fortune they kill us. Therefore the solution to terrorism is relatively simple.

* If your figure is less large please check again. If it remains less large please consider carefully your next action, as you have a plan that may change the world.

Thursday, December 29, 2005

A Perfect Enemy Is Very Useful

Fundamentalist Islamic Terrorism has been the perfect enemy to fight. If you are ever to have a nemesis to battle you want them to be vile, big and weak (perfectly flawed). Your conflict with them is morally pure, your side sees the necessity of strong preparation and you win.

Fundamentalist Islam can be made to tick every box.

The terrorists are vile, they show no compunction against killing anybody in their way. Almost everybody is in their way so they kill anybody. Beslan was the epitome of evil, they put themselves at a level of utter contempt. Every suicide bomb in a market or a pizzeria is done knowing that it is a pointless exercise in killing, they kill because they can. There is no tactical reason and very little strategic point in killing a few civilians at a time. The action is undertaken as a promotional exercise to show that they are doing something, to show that their holy war is proceeding. Any actor can be morally justified in confronting this vile enemy.

Islam is a big religion. A fundamentalist following of the Koran allows for holy war to be practiced against everybody. Lacking any reformation or later day teaching the Koran is the word of G*d that must be obeyed and fosters fundamentalism. It is a big book and so can justify almost any type of action from peace to war through selective reading. An actor that can portray Islam as the enemy makes a long conflict seem unavoidable.

Islam is weak, it weakens itself through the application of its holy law. The sharia was designed to provide stability in ancient Arab communities. The laws were designed to field an army of fighters to ride horses and carry swords into battle. It was very successful, it allowed Arabs to conquer the World (or near enough). However today it still relies on direct application of that unchanged and ancient law, the stability it creates is to the detriment of the economies of Muslim states. The economic weakness dooms Fundamentalist Islam to lose any massive conflict against non restrained actors. An actor can use this weakness to make victory seem inevitable.

Fundamentalist Islam is such a great enemy to have that it is used to justify actions that are beneficial without being moral, unavoidable or inevitable. Taking an oil rich country for the benefit of the economy, adding a few more houses to the west of your nominal border or showing force against restive southern provinces. Fundamentalist Islam is such a "perfect enemy" that it is fostered by stronger powers - America protects Fundamentalist Islam in Saudi Arabia and Russia protects the Mullahs in Tehran and once upon a time Israel promoted Hamas as an alternative to the PLO.

The problem is that humanity is inventive, adaptive and progressive and above all less than perfect. The Fundamentalist Islamist terrorists will change their behavior, the longer the conflict persists the greater the risk they will get it together and become strong. To prevent this from happening we need to realise that the protection of Fundamentalist Islam in Iran and Saudi will be as damaging to us as the protection of Hamas proved to be for Israel. If the protecting powers stop being protective and become massively hostile then Fundamentalist Islam is doomed.

Wednesday, December 28, 2005

Need for Serious Action

This is what gets me most of all.

We do not treat this as a serious enemy. Partly because they have not proven to be a serious threat (more on that soon) and a few thousands dead is not a problem. We are waiting for them to get their act together and kill a few million of us.

I have every confidence that given enough time they will improve their effectiveness. They are after all human - inventive, intelligent and driven - so have the capability of doing whatever humans can do.

At the moment we treat their attacks as annoyances. As if they are deficient people in need of counseling and support - that if they just have all the options put before them they will choose the best one (the choice of peace & profits). Unfortunately they are backed by people you have found a nirvana of profitability that relies upon them crushing rebellion and making war. These people profit from Islam - from the Saudi sheikh & Iranian mullah who use a false ummah to protect them from their subjects to every husband who treats his wife as a possession. They gain nothing from acting to choose peace and so will not choose it willingly.

To make the counseling work and produce a peaceful society requires closing off certain options. Kick out the profitability of their position by imposing costs for their unhelpful actions. Islam can be a "religion of peace" it just needs clear external cost imposed on those who do profit in diverting it from peace.

Or we can do what we do and wait for the megadeath and have a genocidal clash of cultures.

Hat Tip to Pastorius at IBA - Vlad the Impaler part ii

Thursday, December 01, 2005

Cabinet Wars

There are two types of wars - Wars of Necessity and Wars of Choice.

The Cold War and WWII were wars of necessity with no choice of intervening or not. Wars of necessity are fought to be won, they are the best kind of war. Capitalism versus Communism and Democracy versus Fascism both needed to be fought.

The War on Terror is a war of necessity. The invasion of Afghanistan has been part of the War on Terror, making a decisive attack against one of the enemies that sponsored fundamentalist Islam. The strikes on the World Trade Centre were part of the War on Terror, a small attack on those that would degrade Islam to a secular and merely private matter.

The War on Drugs and the Great War (WWI) were started as wars of choice (Cabinet Wars) that were entered into for advantage against competing interests. The War on Drugs remains a war of choice which is fought for the prohibitionists in America, but even if it is lost it will not threaten America. WWI mutated quickly into a battle for survival, with the loser doomed to be massivley defeated and even the winners to be degraded.

The War in Iraq was entered into as a war of choice, the invasion against Saddam and the Iraqi army was an action chosen by the cabinet. It was made for either profit (if you believe in $200 billion oil rights) or to protect us from Saddam's WMD (if you believe in Bush & Blair) . It has become part of the War on Terror, because our enemies have taken the opportunity to attack us there. It should be won because it will hurt our enemies if we forced them to give up (forced them to choose defeat). However it is still just a war or choice and winning or losing the Iraq war will not decide the War on Terror - just like victory in the Vietnam War failed to win the Cold War for the Soviets.

There are other wars of choice that the USA could engage in to fight fundamentalist Islam. Chechnya, Southern Phillipines, Kashmir and Israel all present opportunities to confront the armies of fundamentalism. These choices are mere diversions that appeal through our moral convictions of kinship and support for others fighting against fundamentalism, they are unimportant to overall victory or defeat. These wars should not be engaged in - they waste resources, tie down troops and weaken resolve to fight (as witnessed by the imminent withdrawl from Iraq).

The War on Terror needs to be taken to the source of fundamentalism for the West to win, it needs to be prosecuted against the regimes of Saudi Arabia and Iran. If the West were to do so the War could be over within 24 months.

To win their War on Terror the Islamofacists need to attack the heart of the West. They will continue attacks in America and Europe. They will continue to lobby, infiltrate local Muslim organisations and divert PC democracy to their ends. They will win within the next 50 years or the West will become facist in response and crush them there. Democarcy is dead if islamofacism is not crushed in Saudi and Iran.