Thursday, May 19, 2016

Auckland and the Opposion - now I'm more positive

Phil Twyford, well done sir.

Best news I've seen in a while.  Ending Len Brown's RUB is much better than keeping it.

Update: Unfortunately Phil Twyford (Lab) seems to be incapable of communicating his policy's merit to Phil Goff (Lab).  Phil Goff (Lab) is in favour of the sprawlfest, high rent, urban growth killing policies of Len Brown (Lab). 

Update: Phil Twyford has now broached the policy as part of the new government.  Expect Phil Goff to strenuously object and demand more money. 

Wednesday, May 18, 2016

Auckland and the Government - a pessimistic prediction.

Nick Smith, Minister for Housing has just signaled that he is going to force council to open up more long-term land for housing supply.  On the face of it this should be great news for Auckland.

However I am a pessimist and a cynic.   Cynical zero sum politics say the Nats and the Council politics align around keeping land costs high. 

I believe Nick Smith is going to "force" our Lenny Penny council to open up even more exurbia.  

More exurban land is more sprawl and more cost.  It will suit both their cynical politics and screw over Auckland.  More exurban sprawl will not help Auckland. 

What is required is more land added to Auckland City.  Auckland City is the biggest city in NZ, it should be possible for our politicians to work out where it is and where it isn't.

Update - Called it. Nick Smith will make the restrictions on Auckland permanent and make the sprawl happen.  Only he wants this screwed up plan to occur even faster.

National Party - Cynical Party.

Monday, May 09, 2016

A Tale of Four Cities

As a million plus city it is interesting to see how Auckland is doing and where it stands against comparable places.  Auckland is in the Australasian region and the three closest million plus cities are Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne.

In the post-GFC construction boom differing policies have caused these cities, which all suffered from housing shortages pre-boom, to start building faster. Auckland Council has decided to make Auckland the most expensive place to build and we can see the results. 

Auckland - housing shortage forecast to extend until 2028*
Sydney - housing shortage may to extend until 2023*
Brisbane - housing shortage forecast to extend until 2018
Melbourne - housing shortage may to extend until 2018

* optimists are expecting a downturn by 2025, pessimists by 2022.  In the event of these predictions being true, Auckland faces a structural housing shortage and rent rises for a generation.